BN's chances to Medal in NHC finals

[Grandpa]

My tally of the BN's first round showing, including the results of Northeast Categories 25 & 28 (posted 5-10-11):

56 Entries Advancing to Final Round

16 First Place
15 Second Place
25 Third Place

The odds of winning 1st, 2nd or 3rd are based only on random selection (only for the purposes of this calculation) and assume a full 30 entries per category.
No weighting was put on the first round results; 1st, 2nd and 3rd place entries were assumed equal contenders.
However, both category 4 and category 7 are looking strong with three 1st place entries going, which should improve the winning odds. Time will tell.

It would be interesting to compare QUAFF and DOZE numbers to the BN's below:

Categories: 2,3,4,11,16,18,22
Entries: 4ea
Probability of placing (taking 1st, 2nd or 3rd) for each category: 36.0%

Categories: 7,8,10,28
Entries: 3ea
Probability of placing (taking 1st, 2nd or 3rd) for each category: 28%

Categories: 1,5,9,15,21
Entries: 2ea
Probability of placing (taking 1st, 2nd or 3rd) for each category: 19.3%

Categories: 12,19,20,23,25,27
Entries: 1ea
Probability of placing (taking 1st, 2nd or 3rd) for each category: 10.0%

Categories: 6,13,14,17,24,26
Entries: 0ea
Probability of placing (taking 1st, 2nd or 3rd) for each category: 0.0%

I'm not a math major, so chime in if my numbers are off.

See you in San Diego,
Steve

edits: - "Probability of placing (taking 1st, 2nd or 3rd)" replaced "Odds of placing"
- clarified reference to "winning" and "random"
- added Saratoga Springs Cat 25 & 28 results

[TastyMcD]

.....The odds of winning 1st, 2nd or 3rd are based only on random selection and assume.....

Whoa......just a second. I thought this was a judged event. You should put an "assume" at the beginning of that sentence. Right?

Tasty

[Grandpa]

.....The odds of winning 1st, 2nd or 3rd are based only on random selection and assume.....

Whoa......just a second. I thought this was a judged event. You should put an "assume" at the beginning of that sentence. Right?

Tasty

Absolutely, what I meant is that this calculation of odds is based on a random outcome, that there is no other weighting based on the quality of the entry.
Sorry for the omission.

Steve

[siwelwerd]

Not clear from what you posted, but what you computed are the probabilities of the BN taking at least one (as opposed to exactly one) of the three places in the listed categories, assuming the places were assigned randomly. Pedantic note: "odds" means something different--(1/p-1):1, where p is the probability of success, to be precise.

[Grandpa]

Not clear from what you posted, but what you computed are the probabilities of the BN taking at least one (as opposed to exactly one) of the three places in the listed categories, assuming the places were assigned randomly. Pedantic note: "odds" means something different--(1/p-1):1, where p is the probability of success, to be precise.

Thanks for clarifying these points and I understand the confusion.
Will edit the original post....

[Azimuth]

What I would be curious to see (but I am too lazy to do myself) are in what categories are Doze/BN/Quaff doing battle head to head.

Curt C.
Doze

[captain carrot]

BN wins